Advanced statistical Models

STS 3113 Course Final Project (30%)

In this assessment you will undertake a report based on a series of statistical data followed by an individual defence. Both parts are worth 15% of course grades.

For the course project you will undertake THREE components of UAE based Statistics and then use them with statistical techniques used in the course.

The THREE components used will be

Higher Colleges of Technology Yearbook

See link on your Portal home page

Dubai Statistics Center on a wide range of products or services

https://www.dsc.gov.ae/en-us/Pages/default.aspx

TOM TOM Real time traffic Dubai Traffic

https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/dubai-traffic/  ( Note: hover over the table to see updated data)

The data is to be calculated in Microsoft Excel and the analysis to be done in report format in Microsoft word. Please take screenshots of all tables and charts and put into Word.

See walkthrough for more details of how to obtain data.

You may also use other websites to obtain the data

Part 1: Index numbers and Time series and forecasting (30 marks) Ch17, 18.

Look at the data in the Dubai Statistics Center Website. You are required to analyse one sector (themes) per person.

The sectors are given to you on the introduction page

Find the data going back to 2010. You need to get identical or similar data each year from that source.

Put all the data into one Excel sheet and complete the following tasks

• In Excel input all the data and create charts and tables to display your data in a professional way.
• Calculate the yearly increases or decreases of each year in your sector.
• When you have completed your data collection use the course statistical methods to find the following:
• The trend of that sector since 2010
• Using 2010 (or the earliest year available) as the base year calculate the appropriate index of those sectors. Compare your two sectors using Index calculations.
• Using the two sectors calculate and draw a chart with a secular trend and a cyclical variation.
• Construct a table and chart with a 3 and 5 year moving average.
• Construct a weighted average. Choose 2010 (or first year of data) the final year of data (2017 or 2018) and one year in between. Give the most recent year a weighting of 0.5, the middle year 0.3 and the initial year 0.2.
• From part iv and v make a forecast on how the sector is going to perform in 2019
• Include all observations in your report in part 4.

Part 2: Regression and correlation/ Analysis of variance (30 marks) Ch12, 13, 14, 15

Look at the data in the HCT Factbook.

Choose one table of data from each section for the campuses and also the divisions

• Enrollments
• New enrollments
• Graduates
• HCT Staff

• In Excel draw a trend of all at least three campuses or departments. Show the trends in an appropriate chart. Data exists from 2012 – 2013.
• Calculate the annual increases or decreases of each of your data. Calculate the change in student numbers and also the percentage change.
• Complete some statistical analysis on your performance

• Use a relevant Index model to show the change in your data.
• Use an ANOVA to show if there is a significant different in the variances ( i.e. how different the data has changed ) . You can test at all levels 0.01,0.02, 0.05 and 0.1. In your report you will be asked to comment on your findings.
• Use a relevant statistical model in Excel to show if there is any correlation between your data. Comment on the strength or weaknesses between them.
• Use the same statistical model to create a multiple regression table which will show the relevant data. Write down the regression equation from the table.
• Take the average (mean) figure from your data. Let these be the value of x in a multiple regression equation, what would be the expected number the dependent variable be based on the independent?

• Write a report about your findings. Use the calculations in all parts of question 3 to support your answers. Include in part 4 Project report.

Part 3 Control Charts

In this section please use the following website https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/dubai-traffic/

In this you will find a congestion table of traffic in Dubai ( Note this table changes on a regular basis )

• In Excel download the traffic congestion data ( you may do it in percent or use whole numbers) . Use only from 6.00 AM to 11 PM data.
• Use the days Sunday to Thursday to determine a mean control chart and a range control chart on the changes in congestion from Sunday to Thursday. All final answers should be to TWO decimal points.
• In Excel construct both a mean chart and a range chart and clearly show any means or ranges that are out of control.
• Similar to numbers 2 and 3 Use all SEVEN days of the week to determine a mean control chart and a range control chart on the changes in congestion for the whole SEVEN days. All final answers should be to TWO decimal points.
• In Excel construct both a mean chart and a range chart and clearly show any means or ranges that are out of control for the SEVEN days.
• Write a short report on your findings and conclusion for this part.
• Include this report and observations in your report including relevant charts / tables ( part 4)

Part 4: Report (40%)

You are required to write a report outlining your findings and your interpretation of results

• Write an introduction about the project and the two tasks you were assigned to complete
• Input all charts and tables from Excel and use these tables and charts as a basis for a statistical analysis into the two tasks in the project.
• Construct an analysis for each finding ( charts or table ) and give insights of what you found and how you interpret your findings
• Make a conclusion into the whole analysis and state what your overall findings were.
• Construct a short reflection into what you learnt from this project and also how you could use data like this in your future studies or career
• Ensure the report is professionally formatted with
• no spelling or grammatical errors
• Provide a cover page with all group participants names and Id Numbers
• Ensure page numbers are included and you have included a contents page
• All font size, font type and line spacing is consistent throughout the report

Submission

Give a hard copy of the report to your teacher in class (or make arrangements through email) and drop all Excel files into BBLEARN under the link “Group Project submissions”. Please do not print out the Excel files.