Students will write a term paper that analyzes micro data from www.ipums.usa.org and attempts to verify a previously published study. The studies listed below are examples of the types of studies students will locate, attempt to verify and then extend or reanalyze in some way.

Outline: By 7/1 students will write up 1.) an abstract describing their replication and extension study, and 2.) an outline that contains the title, written as a one sentence research question, five sections with section names, a complete bibliographic citation to the study you will attempt to verify, a regression equation you will estimate with a description of the variables, coefficients and estimation subsample. In the regression equation, index variables to make it clear to the reader what is the unit of observation (A household? A person?). Describe one or more original ideas for extending the model. Finally, include any results you may have already produced, even if they are preliminary.

At 8a.m. on 8/5 you will submit a rough draft of your paper. The paper must expand upon the outline, and include your best results to date. You’ll make a short, seven-minute presentation of your rough draft, using slides, later that day. Both your presentation and your draft should discuss best examples in the literature of estimating a well-defined causal effects, and your original contribution to this area. A rubric for presentations is on the last page of this syllabus.

After you receive feedback from the presentation, you will revise the rough draft and submit the final paper by 8a.m. on 8/10.

All papers must have five numbered sections: 1.) Intro, 2.) Literature Review & Economic Theory, 3.) Data Description, 4.) Empirical Results, and 5.) Conclusion, as described in Stock and Watson’s “Conducting a Regression Study Using Economic Data” (on Canvas, Files > PDFs). Sections will be about five paragraphs in length and each paragraph about five sentences. This “5×5” suggestion is a rule-of-thumb and need not be followed exactly. However, all papers must have these three tables: Variable Descriptions, Summary Statistics, and Regression Results. Original figures like maps created with GIS software are encouraged but not required; all copied tables and figures are prohibited unless cleared with the instructor. Original tables must be formatted exactly as described in class. Your paper should have seven or more references (listed in a Bibliography section) in Chicago format. All papers must list and describe an equation describing the empirical model, and must contain an abstract. As an example, a brief “letters” style article (like Holian 2020a, 2020b) is close to (though slightly shorter than) what is required here. In particular, compared to a letters article, you paper must have a whole literature review section and table of summary statistics.

Examples of Good Candidates for Replication in this Class

Bailey, James, and Dhaval Dave. “The effect of the Affordable Care Act on entrepreneurship among older adults.” Eastern Economic Journal 45, no. 1 (2019): 141-159.

Comolli, Chiara Ludovica, and Fabrizio Bernardi. “The causal effect of the great recession on childlessness of white American women.” IZA Journal of Labor Economics 4, no. 1 (2015): 21.

Costa, Dora L., and Matthew E. Kahn. “Electricity consumption and durable housing: understanding cohort effects.” American Economic Review, 101, no. 3 (2011): 88-92.

Holian, Matthew J. “The impact of urban form on vehicle ownership.” Economics Letters 186 (2020a): 108763.z

Holian, Matthew J. “The impact of building energy codes on household electricity expenditures.”

Economics Letters 186 (2020b): 108841.

Orrenius, Pia M., and Madeline Zavodny. “The Impact of Temporary Protected Status on Immigrants’ Labor Market Outcomes.” American Economic Review 105, no. 5 (2015): 576-80.

Winters, John V. “Is economics a good major for future lawyers? Evidence from earnings data.”

The Journal of Economic Education 47, no. 2 (2016): 187-191.

Finding Your Own Studies to Replicate

You may replicate one of the studies listed above, another study discussed in Data and the American Dream, or one you find on your own. Published studies that are good candidates for replication in this class, like most of the ones listed above, generally have two characteristics. First, they contain statistics that were estimated only with the micro data from IPUMS (they do not require merging on data from other sources.) Second, they were estimated with the types of regression models that are the focus of this class.

I have several suggestions for finding studies to replicate. First, search the bibliography at: https://bibliography.ipums.org/. All of these studies use the IPUMS micro data in some way, but students will have to determine whether they use merged data or advanced methods.

Second, do a “cited reference search” using Google Scholar. For example, search for the following citation:

Ruggles, Steven, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. “Integrated public use microdata series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database].” Minneapolis: University of Minnesota 42 (2010).

Authors who used this version of the IPUMS data are supposed to cite this study (although not all do.) In Google Scholar, you can see a list of all studies Google knows about that cited any reference by clicking the “ button beneath the reference. As I write this, 2,703 studies have cited Ruggles et al. (2010). Thousands of other studies have cited different versions of the IPUMS data. To find these, I suggest you click the link to Steven Ruggles’ Google Scholar author page, where you’ll see a list of his most cited studies. Do cited reference searches on these as well.

When you find articles, you will usually need to access them through our university’s subscriptions. Our library subscribes to most scholarly journals. Go to http://library.sjsu.edu/ and click Journal Titles. Enter the journal title. You can do this faster; on Google Scholar, set up “library links” under “settings” to see direct links to articles.

Here are two other options for locating published econometric research: 1.) search the JSTOR database. http://library.calstate.edu/sanjose/databases/alphabetical?alpha=J. Limit your search to Economics journals in Advanced Search, and search using keywords in your area of interest; 2.) search the EconLit database (change end of link above from “J” to “E”). You can search by keyword; if you are interested in an area within economics, try also to search by subject (SU) using JEL code: https://www.aeaweb.org/econlit/jelCodes.php.

Term Paper Grading

For Rough Drafts and Term Papers, I’ll be looking for the things listed in the table below in each section. Of course following the guidelines of the assignment listed above is important; to repeat, all papers must have: 1.) five sections, 2.) about 25 paragraphs or 125 sentences, 3.) tables of Variable Descriptions, Summary Statistics, and Regression Results, 4.) no copied figures, 5.) References (at least seven) in Chicago format, 6.) an equation describing an empirical model, 7.) an abstract that summarizes the paper, and 8.) One or more JEL codes.

Content is most important. Remember this is a class about using observational data to estimate causal effects, so focus on discussing literature that strives to define and estimate causal effects, evaluate how credible the estimates in the study you replicate are as causal effects, and how your extension adds to our understanding, or improves upon the replication.

Grammar is also important. There are formal rules of grammar (Does each paragraph have a topic sentence? Do all sentences develop one controlling idea? Does paper feature appropriate punctuation, syntax, usage? Is the paper free of spelling errors? Are citations used appropriately?) There are also less formal “stylistic” elements of writing: Does paper avoid the

For Final Term Papers, I’ll be looking for the things listed in the table below in each section. Of course following the guidelines of the assignment listed above is important; to repeat, all papers must have: 1.) five sections, 2.) about 25 paragraphs or 125 sentences, 3.) tables of Variable Descriptions, Summary Statistics, and Regression Results, 4.) no copied figures, 5.) References (at least seven) in Chicago format, 6.) an equation describing an empirical model, 7.) an abstract that summarizes the paper, and 8.) One or more JEL codes.

Content is most important. Remember this is a class about using observational data to estimate causal effects, so focus on discussing literature that strives to define and estimate causal effects, evaluate how credible the estimates in the study you replicate are as causal effects, and how your extension adds to our understanding, or improves upon the replication.

Grammar is also important. There are formal rules of grammar (Does each paragraph have a topic sentence? Do all sentences develop one controlling idea? Does paper feature appropriate punctuation, syntax, usage? Is the paper free of spelling errors? Are citations used appropriately?) There are also less formal “stylistic” elements of writing: Does paper avoid the passive voice? Overall, is the writing style and voice appropriate?  Does it appear the student read contemporary and seminal studies and is it written in the style of the profession?

The best way to learn the style of economic writing is to read economic writing; this suggests you should try to actually read the journal articles you review in your literature review section, not just the abstracts. You can also consult various guides to style and writing. In addition to the McCloskey (1985) article that will be discussed in class, a book-length treatment that is widely used across fields is Strunk (2007) The elements of style.

For outlines, rough drafts and final papers, the percentages listed below each criteria are the approximate weight of each section towards your final grade. The difference between the assignments, essentially, is just the level of completeness—an outline may not feature any results, a draft will have results but the writing will be incomplete, and a final paper will be a complete academic-style term paper.

passive voice? Overall, is the writing style and voice appropriate? Does it appear the student read contemporary and seminal studies and is it written in the style of the profession?

The best way to learn the style of economic writing is to read economic writing; this suggests you should try to actually read the journal articles you review in your literature review section, not just the abstracts. You can also consult various guides to style and writing. In addition to the McCloskey (1985) article that will be discussed in class, a book-length treatment that is widely used across fields is Strunk (2007) The elements of style.

For outlines, rough drafts and final papers, the percentages listed below each criteria are the approximate weight of each section towards your final grade. The difference between the assignments, essentially, is just the level of completeness—an outline may not feature any results, a draft will have results but the writing will be incomplete, and a final paper will be a complete academic-style term paper.

Course Schedule (To be updated periodically; note date on first page of this syllabus.)

Date /

Location        Topic                                                                                                                          Readings to be completed before class

Additional References

McCloskey, D. (1985). Economical writing. Economic Inquiry, 23(2), 187-222.

Writing a Literature Review Section. (https://library.sjsu.edu/video/writing-literature-review-section )

Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W. “Conducting a Regression Study Using Economic Data” https://wps.pearsoned.com/wps/media/objects/11422/11696965/stoc2517.ch10.343-350.C1.pdf

Presentations:

This page contains more detailed guidelines for how to plan your presentation. We have a maximum of 10 minutes per speaker. After this amount of time passes, we absolutely have to move on to the next speaker. We want to allow a minute or two of discussion after each one. So, plan for a seven minute presentation. Please practice your presentations to make sure you don’t exceed seven minutes by more than a minute at most.

I’ve found a good rule of thumb is to plan one slide for each minute of presentation, certainly not more. So say you shoot for seven slides: 1.) Title page, 2.) Literature Review, 3.) the regression model / empirical approach 4.) Table of Variable Descriptions 5.) Table of Summary Statistics 6.) Table of Regression Results 7.) Plan for future research.

Avoid distracting colors and themes, don’t put too much text on a slide, don’t make the numbers you want people to see in your tables tiny, don’t read off your slides (the audience can read them). Do aim to teach the audience something about the econometric methods and data used in the literature you have reviewed, and explain your research findings clearly. In terms of what concepts you present, see the following rubric: